Have we noticed this? A Population implosion!

By Shashi Narasimhiah

A new study by India’s National Family Health Survey for 2019-21 has found that the Country’s population is set to fall for the first time ever since the fertility rate has fallen below replacement level.  Replacement level is – minimum of 2.1 children per woman for the country to replace its dying population and an average Indian woman now is not having more than 2 children. Given that India after independence has been battling with – some would argue – irresponsible and massive growth in population, this comes not just as good news, but as a great relief! But life is never the simple arithmetic we would like it to be! A by-product of this is – India which is known for being “young” and home to the largest millennial population, will soon start aging. This will lead to lesser number of people joining the workforce, more retirees, slower economic growth and shrinking GDP.

It is not just in India this is happening. China with a replacement level of 1.7, the birth rate has plunged to its lowest in four decades. Similarly, birth rate in most other leading nations too is falling – South Korea 1, Singapore 1.1, Hong Kong 1.1, Spain 1.3, Italy 1.3, Canada 1.5, Australia 1.6, and USA 1.7. Only Africa (4.4) and Oceania (2.4) are ahead in the replacement race. By 2060, 40% of Japan will be over 65 and by 2100 many leading countries will experience a 50% reduction in population and China will reduce to just 732 million.

Going back in time, motherhood for a woman was a moral and physical obligation. A childless woman has undergone both physical and mental abuse in the past regardless of race, religion, or country. A childless woman was often branded barren and in some parts of the world they were even called witches. A woman could be divorced for being unable to give birth to a child. Some women were even flogged for not being able to produce children! Only with a vow of celibacy – such as in the case of a nun, the woman was spared from having children.  However, we now live in a different era where women have chosen not to have as any or many babies. The days of women being reproductive machines are well and truly over.

Why aren’t women having more babies? In the bygone era, from building construction to operating heavy machinery to waging a war – physical might was the fundamental requirement and men being physically stronger were in control and women were considered “weaker” and “dependent” and relegated to reproduction and domestic duties. But with the advancement in technology where physical might is increasingly taking a back seat, that paradigm has changed, and women are now occupying the centre stage in all walks of life as well as achieving financial independence. But the society as a whole and successive governments have done nothing to reduce their domestic responsibilities and women are having to do both – career and domestic which has made them over worked and have no time for children. This is seen as the fundamental reason for women increasingly “opting out”. In South Korea despite being a conservative society a “no marriage movement” is currently taking shape. In Hong Kong one third of eligible women have not even married let alone produce children. In the USA, 21% of married couple have consciously chosen not to have children. Add to the above other factors – having children is too expensive, accommodation including play area requires significant real estate, which is overly expensive, education commencing with Kindergarten all the way is far too expensive. And with the global uncertainty of the ongoing pandemic and failed climate change initiatives – it seems like a great idea not to have children.

The Pope says “Choice to not have children is selfish. Life rejuvenates and acquires energy when it multiplies: It is enriched, not impoverished” and endorsed the view that child-free couples are being selfish – but there is only one small issue here – Pope himself a non-parent!

Across the world, some reluctant to lukewarm initiatives are on the horizon to re-set the cycle of life such as:

• Most leading nations are considering better run state schools, more flexible workplaces, affordable childcare, adequate maternity, and paternity leave,
• South Korea has gone to the extent of encouraging dating events as well as dating at even at workplaces,
• Some countries have initiated Tax incentives for those who produce children above the replacement level,
• In China after their disastrous one-child policy, they have now instituted a two-child policy in 2016, and a 3 child policy 2021.

To what extent this will help in correcting the imbalance – only time will tell.